Epidemiology and infection
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Multicenter Study
Application of ordinal logistic regression analysis to identify the determinants of illness severity of COVID-19 in China.
Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has presented an unprecedented challenge to the health-care system across the world. The current study aims to identify the determinants of illness severity of COVID-19 based on ordinal responses. A retrospective cohort of COVID-19 patients from four hospitals in three provinces in China was established, and 598 patients were included from 1 January to 8 March 2020, and divided into moderate, severe and critical illness group. ⋯ The interval between illness onset and diagnosis (OR = 1.056, 95% CI: 1.012-1.101) and interval between illness onset and admission (OR = 1.048, 95% CI: 1.009-1.087) were independent significant predictors of illness severity. Patients of critical illness suffered from inferior survival, as compared with patients in the severe group (HR = 14.309, 95% CI: 5.585-36.659) and in the moderate group (HR = 41.021, 95% CI: 17.588-95.678). Our findings highlight that the identified determinants may help to predict the risk of developing more severe illness among COVID-19 patients and contribute to optimising arrangement of health resources.