Journal of neurotrauma
-
Journal of neurotrauma · Aug 2016
Randomized Controlled Trial Multicenter StudyExternal validation of the IMPACT prognostic models for traumatic brain injury on the SyNAPSe trial.
Prediction models for patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) are important for multiple reasons, including case-mix adjustment, trial design, and benchmarking for quality-of-care evaluation. Models should be generalizable and therefore require regular external validation. We aimed to validate the International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI (IMPACT) prognostic models for moderate and severe TBI in a recent randomized controlled trial. ⋯ This pattern of miscalibration was consistent across all three models. In a contemporary trial setting, the IMPACT models have reasonable discrimination if enrollment restrictions apply. Observed changes in outcome distribution necessitate updating of previously developed prognostic models.