Shock : molecular, cellular, and systemic pathobiological aspects and therapeutic approaches : the official journal the Shock Society, the European Shock Society, the Brazilian Shock Society, the International Federation of Shock Societies
-
Randomized Controlled Trial Clinical Trial
Multivariate regression modeling for the prediction of inflammation, systemic pressure, and end-organ function in severe sepsis.
The purpose of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of developing multivariate equations that predicted blood pressure and measured levels of end-organ function indicators quantitatively up to 72 h in advance in critically ill patients with severe sepsis. Data collected prospectively from 59 patients entered into two sequential placebo-controlled clinical trials of recombinant interleukin-1 receptor antagonist in severe sepsis and septic shock was analyzed retrospectively. A series of multivariate equations were developed to predict systemic pressure, coagulation, and vital organ function indicators quantitatively at 24, 48, and 72 h after the onset of severe sepsis. ⋯ Resolution of organ failure indicators present at baseline was predicted successfully in individual patients, with 20/27 (74%) specificities > or = 76%. In critically ill patients with severe sepsis, multivariate analysis of interactions among clinical observations, standard laboratory tests, and inflammatory response mediators produced equations that predicted systemic blood pressure and inflammatory and end-organ function indicators quantitatively up to 72 h in advance. Whether or not this methodology might be developed further to predict subclinically the onset and resolution of acute organ failure and shock in critically ill patients, and if it can be validated in a prospective trial will require further studies.