Critical care : the official journal of the Critical Care Forum
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What is this?
Kain & Fowler's prescient review from October 2019 sets out how intensive care units should prepare and respond to the next pandemic, both practically at a hospital level and at a wider health-system. Although the focus was on an influenza pandemic, the advice is readily applicable to the SARS-COV-2 pandemic.
Background
They note that not only have we seen regular influenza outbreaks in addition to other viral pandemics, that due to increased urbanisation, population density, global travel and living proximity to animals, there is rapidly increasing global risk of a viral pandemic.
"When considering preparation for the next pandemic, it is not a matter of if it will occur, but rather a matter of when." – Kain & Fowler
They provide an overview of historical influenza pandemics over the last century, most recently with the 2009 H1N1 swine-flu pandemic, killing 300,000 people.
- Despite this history we remain unprepared for a pandemic.
- From an ICU perspective, conservative models predict >170% ICU resource utilisation due to a pandemic. They note that most health systems would struggle with even this optimistic surge.
- SARS experience in Canada, despite only 251 cases, critically stretched hospital and ICU resources.
What preparation do they recommend?
Kain and Fowler suggest global focus on:
- Pandemic surveillance.
- Prepare health-system scalability to manage surge: equipment, physical space, human resources, and system (eg. stepped triage plans).
- Prepare for mass vaccine production.
- Better coordinate and integrate communications.
- Streamlined research and ethics proposals for rapid initiation.
They highlight the importance of intensivists being involved in strategic planning, so as to coordinate ICU responses for "...triage, clinical care, and infection control." – noting that during SARS 20% of infections were in healthcare workers, and hospitals themselves became important sources of transmission.
Final word...
The IHR Committee's review following the 2009 H1N1 pandemic is now only too obvious:
summary“...the world is ill-prepared to respond to a severe influenza pandemic or to any similarly global, sustained, and threatening public-health emergency.” – International Health Regulations Committee (2011)
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To re-evaluate the role of median nerve somatosensory evoked potentials (SSEPs) and bilateral loss of the N20 cortical wave as a predictor of unfavorable outcome in comatose patients following cardiac arrest (CA) in the therapeutic hypothermia (TH) era. ⋯ The absence of the SSEP N20 cortical wave remains one of the most reliable early prognostic tools for identifying unfavorable neurologic outcome in the evaluation of patients with severe anoxic-ischemic encephalopathy whether or not they have been treated with TH. When confounding factors are eliminated the false positive rate (FPR) approaches zero.