Evolution; international journal of organic evolution
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Time-calibrated phylogenies that contain only living species have been widely used to study the dynamics of speciation and extinction. Concerns about the reliability of phylogenetic extinction estimates were raised by Rabosky (2010), where I suggested that unaccommodated heterogeneity in speciation rate could lead to positively biased extinction estimates. ⋯ Using parameter values drawn from the recent literature, I find that modest levels of heterogeneity in speciation rate result in a consistent, positive bias in extinction estimates that are exacerbated by phylogenetic tree size. This bias, combined with the inherent lack of information about extinction in molecular phylogenies, suggests that extinction rate estimates from phylogenies of extant taxa only should be treated with caution.