Trends Ecol Evol
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The origin and zoonotic transmission route of SARS-CoV-2 remain speculative. We discuss scenarios for the zoonotic emergence of SARS-CoV-2, and also explore the missing evidence and ecological considerations that are necessary to confidently identify the origin and transmission route of SARS-CoV-2 and to prevent future pandemics of zoonotic viruses.
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Advanced warning of potential new opportunities and threats related to biodiversity allows decision-makers to act strategically to maximize benefits or minimize costs. Strategic foresight explores possible futures, their consequences for decisions, and the actions that promote more desirable futures. ⋯ These tools are now being applied in ecology, although generally not as part of a comprehensive foresight strategy. We highlight several ways foresight could play a more significant role in environmental decisions by: monitoring existing problems, highlighting emerging threats, identifying promising new opportunities, testing the resilience of policies, and defining a research agenda.
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Tipping points are recognised in many systems, including ecosystems and elements of the climate system. But can the biosphere as a whole tip and, if so, how? Past global tipping points were rare and occurred in the coupled planetary-scale dynamics of the Earth system, not in the local-scale dynamics of its weakly interacting component ecosystems. Yet, evolutionary innovations have triggered past global transformations, suggesting that tipping point theory needs to go beyond bifurcations and networks to include evolution.
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Species ranges are seldom at equilibrium with climate, because several interacting factors determine distribution, including demographic processes, dispersal, land use, disturbance (e.g., fire), and biotic interactions. Conservation strategies in a changing climate therefore cannot be based only on predicted climate-driven range shifts. ⋯ Nine other conservation actions are also presented, from understanding and predicting to planning and managing for climate change. We emphasize the need for adaptation and resilience in populations, ecosystems, and the conservation environment itself.