J Postgrad Med
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The area under the ROC curve is frequently used for assessing the predictive efficacy of a model, and the Youden index is commonly used to provide the optimal cut-off. Both are misleading tools for predictions. A ROC curve is drawn for the sensitivity of a quantitative test against its (1 - specificity) at different values of the test. ⋯ We propose predictivity-based ROC curves as tools for providing predictivities at varying prevalence in different populations. For optimal cut-off for prediction, in place of the Youden index, we propose a P-index where the sum of positive and negative predictivities is maximum after subtracting 1. To conclude, for correctly assessing adequacy of a prediction models, predictivity-based ROC curves should be used instead of the usual sensitivity-specificity-based ROC curves and the P-index should replace the Youden index.
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Arsenic compounds are colorless and odorless and toxicity can occur either acutely following ingestion of arsenicals with gastrointestinal disturbances or due to chronic exposure usually presenting with dermatologic lesions and peripheral neuropathy. We report a young couple who presented with signs and symptoms of painful sensorimotor peripheral neuropathy in a typical "stocking and glove" pattern. They had raised urinary arsenic levels with normal blood levels and thus, a diagnosis of chronic arsenic poisoning due to contaminated water intake was made after detecting elevated arsenic levels in their home water supply. Both patients underwent chelation therapy with dimercaprol for 14 days and reported subjective and objective improvement in symptoms with the reduction in urinary arsenic levels at the end of therapy.