Articles: pandemics.
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After the emergence of the H1N1 influenza in 2009, some countries responded with travel-related controls during the early stage of the outbreak in an attempt to contain or slow down its international spread. These controls along with self-imposed travel limitations contributed to a decline of about 40% in international air traffic to/from Mexico following the international alert. However, no containment was achieved by such restrictions and the virus was able to reach pandemic proportions in a short time. ⋯ We explore alternative scenarios for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic by assessing the potential impact of mobility restrictions that vary with respect to their magnitude and their position in the pandemic timeline. We provide a quantitative discussion of the delay obtained by different mobility restrictions and the likelihood of containing outbreaks of infectious diseases at their source, confirming the limited value and feasibility of international travel restrictions. These results are rationalized in the theoretical framework characterizing the invasion dynamics of the epidemics at the metapopulation level.
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MMWR Morb. Mortal. Wkly. Rep. · Jan 2011
Self-reported influenza-like illness during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic--United States, September 2009 - March 2010.
CDC identified the first case of 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza on April 15, 2009. During the first 3 months of the outbreak, approximately 43,000 cases were reported to CDC. In June 2009, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak an influenza pandemic. ⋯ Among 216,431 adults and 43,511 children (aged <18 years), the average monthly percentage of respondents reporting ILI in the 30 days preceding the interview was 8.1% among adults (range: 5.5% for September interviews to 9.5% for November) and 28.4% among children (range: 20.4% for September interviews to 35.9% for November). Health care was sought by 40% of adults and 56% of children with self-reported ILI. The results indicate that reported symptoms of ILI were widespread during the 2009--10 influenza season, with a substantial percentage of those reporting ILI seeking health care.
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Vaccination is one of the cornerstones of controlling an influenza pandemic. To optimise vaccination rates in the general population, ways of identifying determinants that influence decisions to have or not to have a vaccination need to be understood. Therefore, this study aimed to predict intention to have a swine influenza vaccination in an adult population in the UK. An extension of the Theory of Planned Behaviour provided the theoretical framework for the study. ⋯ Theoretical frameworks which identify determinants that influence decisions to have a pandemic influenza vaccination are useful. The implications of this research are discussed with a view to maximising any future pandemic influenza vaccination uptake using theoretically-driven applications.
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To assess the impact of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in England during the two waves of activity up to end of February 2010 by estimating the probabilities of cases leading to severe events and the proportion of the population infected. ⋯ This study suggests a mild pandemic, characterised by case and infection severity ratios increasing between waves. Results suggest low ascertainment rates, highlighting the importance of systems enabling early robust estimation of severity, to inform optimal public health responses, particularly in light of the apparent resurgence of the 2009 A/H1N1 strain in the 2010-11 influenza season.