• Yen-Ting Chen, Chih-Te Ho, Hua-Shai Hsu, Po-Tsung Huang, Chin-Yu Lin, Chiu-Shong Liu, Tsai-Chung Li, Cheng-Chieh Lin, and Wen-Yuan Lin.
• Department of Family Medicine, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan; Hospice Palliative Medicine Unit, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan.
• J Pain Symptom Manage. 2015 Apr 1;49(4):690-6.

ContextThe accurate prediction of survival is one of the key factors in the decision-making process for patients with advanced illnesses.ObjectivesThis study aimed to develop a short-term prognostic prediction method that included such objective factors as medical history, vital signs, and blood tests for use with patients with advanced cancer.MethodsMedical records gathered at the admission of patients with advanced cancer to the hospice palliative care unit at a tertiary hospital in Taiwan were reviewed retrospectively. The records included demographics, history of cancer treatments, performance status, vital signs, and biological parameters, Multivariate logistic regression analyses and receiver operating characteristic curves were used for model development.ResultsThe Objective Palliative Prognostic Score was determined by using six objective predictors identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis. The predictors include heart rate >120/min, white blood cells >11,000/mm(3), platelets <130,000/mm(3), serum creatinine level >1.3 mg/dL, serum potassium level >5 mg/dL, and no history of chemotherapy. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve used to predict seven-day survival was 82.0% (95% confidence interval 75.2%-88.8%). If any three predictors of the six were reached, death within seven days was predicted with 68.8% sensitivity, 86.0% specificity, 55.9% positive predictive value, and 91.4% negative predictive value.ConclusionThe Objective Palliative Prognostic Score consists of six objective predictors for the estimation of seven-day survival among patients with advanced cancer and showed a relatively high accuracy, specificity, and negative predictive value. Objective signs, such as vital signs and blood test results, may help clinicians make decisions at the end of life.Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

32 keywords...

hide…