• Kazuyuki Niki, Yoshiaki Okamoto, Yoshitaka Tabata, Mamiko Tsugane, Taizo Murata, Masao Mizuki, Yasushi Matsumura, Tatsuya Takagi, and Etsuko Uejima.
• 1 Department of Clinical Pharmacy Research and Education, Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Osaka University , Osaka, Japan .
• J Palliat Med. 2018 Apr 1; 21 (4): 529-532.

BackgroundIn terminal phase cancer, predicting a prognosis precisely plays an important role for patients and their families to live meaningful lives. However, there are no established short-term, objective prognostic predictive methods.ObjectiveTo develop simple, short-term, objective prognostic predictive methods through detecting a change point for laboratory test values.DesignA retrospective chart review.Setting/SubjectsSubjects were cancer patients aged ≥16 years and discharged dead from Osaka University Hospital in 2008.MeasurementsUsing different laboratory test values, new prognostic predictive methods were determined based on either six laboratory test values (white blood cell [WBC], platelet [PLT], C-reactive protein, blood urea nitrogen [BUN], aspartate aminotransferase [AST], and lactase dehydrogenase [LDH]): the WPCBAL score, or five test values (WBC, PLT, BUN, AST, and LDH): the WPBAL score. Their utility, including sensitivity and specificity, was compared with that of Glasgow prognostic scores (GPSs).ResultsIn total, 121 cancer patients were enrolled. WPCBAL and WPBAL scores showed higher sensitivity (0.88 and 0.91 vs. 0.68), specificity (0.79 and 0.70 vs. 0.53), negative predictive value (0.98 and 0.97 vs. 0.76), and a much larger relative risk (16.5 and 14.2 vs. 1.78) as prognostic predictors within two weeks of death than GPS as a prognostic predictor within three weeks of death.ConclusionThis is the first study that suggests that the objective prognostic predictive methods, through detecting the change point of laboratory test values, are useful for predicting short-term prognosis. The WPCBAL score and WPBAL score could objectively predict the remaining lifetime within two weeks of mortality.

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