International journal of radiation biology
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Int. J. Radiat. Biol. · Nov 2014
Worker doses and potential health effects resulting from the accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in 2011.
The reliability of exposure scenarios used in the World Health Organization's Health Risk Assessment (HRA) for Fukushima workers was examined. HRA risk estimates for cancer incidence in these workers were then reviewed. ⋯ For the highest dose scenario (Scenario 4: 13 workers), LAR values for thyroid cancer up to 3.5% were estimated, but a radiation-related increase in thyroid cancer incidence is unlikely to be observed because of the small number of workers. For the two intermediate dose scenarios, a small number of cancer cases may occur, but these are unlikely to be observed because the variability in baseline rates of cancer incidence is much larger than the predicted radiation-related incidence rates.