Cadernos de saúde pública
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Comparative Study
Vertical social distancing policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic.
Considering numerical simulations, this study shows that the so-called vertical social distancing health policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. We present the SEIR-Net model, for a network of social group interactions, as a development of the classic mathematical model of SEIR epidemics (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected (symptomatic and asymptomatic)-Removed). In the SEIR-Net model, we can simulate social contacts between groups divided by age groups and analyze different strategies of social distancing. ⋯ On the other hand, horizontal distancing, if applied with the same intensity in all age groups, significantly reduces the total infected people "flattening the disease growth curve". Our analysis considers the city of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, but similar conclusions apply to other cities as well. Code implementation of the model in R-language is provided in the supplementary material.
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In response to the accelerated increase in the number of COVID-19 cases, countries must increase their supply of beds in intensive care units (ICUs). Respiratory diseases, neoplasms, cardiopathies and hypertension, and diabetes are associated with higher COVID-19 case-fatality. The study aimed to identify the regions of Brazil with higher specific mortality rates from these comorbidities and the regions with the greatest shortage of ICU beds and mechanical ventilators. ⋯ Four latent mortality profiles were observed. The Health Regions with the highest mean mortality rates were located in regions with shortages of ICU beds and ventilators, especially in parts of the Northeast, Southeast, and South of Brazil. The spatial localization of regions with both the highest mortality and shortages of ICU beds/ventilators requires attention by policymakers and public planners to deal efficiently and fairly with the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil.
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Cadernos de saúde pública · Sep 2020
ReviewCOVID-19 and food and nutritional (in)security: action by the Brazilian Federal Government during the pandemic, with budget cuts and institutional dismantlement.
The COVID-19 pandemic poses one of this century's greatest public health challenges, with impacts on the health and living conditions of populations worldwide. The literature has reported that the pandemic affects the hegemonic food system in various ways. In Brazil, the pandemic amplifies existing social, racial, and gender inequalities, further jeopardizing the Human Right to Adequate Food (HRAF) and the attainment of food and nutritional security, especially among more vulnerable groups. ⋯ The analysis identified the creation of institutional crisis management arrangements. The proposed actions feature those involving access to income, emergency aid, and food, such as authorization for food distribution outside schools with federal funds from the National School Feeding Program. However, the setbacks and dismantlement in food and nutritional security may undermine the Federal Government's capacity to respond to COVID-19.