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Article pearls, summaries and comments.
To explore the future contradiction of highly-cited research Ioannidis investigated just under 50 of the most significant and highly regarded medical research findings from 1990 to 2003. Of 45 that concluded their interventions were effective, 34 had had their hypothesis retested. Of these 34, over 40% (14) were subsequently shown to be incorrect or exaggerated. Forty percent of some of the most highly regarded, practice-changing medical evidence from the 20th century subsequently disproven!
Ioannidis demonstrated that 80% of non-randomized studies were wrong, and among randomized controlled studies 25% were incorrect. Even large, multicenter, randomized clinical trials were predictably wrong in 10% of studies.
Ioannidis JP. Why most published research findings are false. PLoS Med. 2005 Aug 1; 2 (8): e124e124.